Why Bill Ackman Is Betting Big on a Mortgage Giant’s Comeback

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has declared his highest-conviction investment idea for 2026: a substantial stake in the U.S. mortgage finance corporation Fannie Mae. This year-end announcement has captured significant attention on Wall Street, fueling investor speculation. With the company's shares concluding a turbulent trading year at approximately $10.80, market participants are questioning what has suddenly made this enterprise, under federal conservatorship for nearly two decades, so compelling.

A primary driver behind the renewed optimism is the shifting political landscape. After shares dipped to a low of $3.21 earlier in the year, the return of a Trump administration signaled a potential turning point. Market observers anticipate that the new government may be more inclined to release both Fannie Mae and its counterpart Freddie Mac from federal conservatorship.

Adding substance to these expectations, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) provided initial indications of a potential relisting roadmap as early as August 2025. These hints alone propelled the stock upward by 15% in November. Ackman’s public endorsement now solidifies the growing market belief that 2026 could be a decisive year for the company's future structure.

The Case for Asymmetric Upside

The founder of Pershing Square Capital Management views the equity as profoundly undervalued. Ackman’s thesis centers on the stock trading at a mere fraction of its intrinsic earnings capacity, which he estimates places its price-to-earnings ratio in a remarkably low range of 2.5 to 3.5. While the share price hovers near $10.80, he calculates a fundamental value exceeding $30, contingent on the removal of key regulatory barriers.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Fannie Mae?

A pivotal element of this potential revaluation is the anticipated return to a listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Currently traded only over-the-counter (OTC), a formal relisting would reopen access for a vast pool of institutional investors. Ackman further emphasizes that Fannie Mae has been "highly profitable" and has successfully rebuilt its capital base since 2019.

The Roadmap for Early 2026

From a fundamental perspective, the bullish scenario is supported by a stabilizing U.S. housing market, a trend corroborated by the company's own outlook for December 2025. Investor focus in the first quarter of 2026 will be fixed on concrete signals from regulators. Should the FHFA publish an official timeline for ending conservatorship or adjusting capital requirements, it would likely provide the next major catalyst for the stock.

Furthermore, a decisive breakout above the key technical resistance level at $11 per share could accelerate the market revaluation that Ackman is forecasting, potentially setting the stage for a significant rerating of the mortgage giant.