Viking Therapeutics: A High-Stakes Bet on Weight-Loss Drug Data

Shares of Viking Therapeutics are navigating turbulent market conditions, yet one prominent analyst firm projects a path to nearly triple their current value. Amid insider selling and a wider-than-anticipated quarterly loss, competitive developments in the obesity treatment sector are inadvertently casting a favorable light on Viking's pipeline. This juxtaposition raises a critical question for investors: is the prevailing market skepticism warranted, or does the recent pullback present a strategic entry point?

Behind the promising clinical progress, the company's financial statements reveal significant challenges. For the third quarter, the net loss per share widened to $0.81, a figure that substantially missed the average analyst estimate of $0.67. This shortfall was primarily driven by a sharp increase in research and development expenditures, necessary to fund expanded Phase 3 trial activities.

While the cash position remains robust at approximately $715 million, providing a solid operational runway, the rate of capital burn is accelerating as late-stage trials progress. Adding to investor unease, recent insider transactions have shown selling activity. Both Director Charles A. Rowland, Jr. and the company's Chief Operating Officer disposed of stock holdings in late October. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average ($36.05), though it finds a key support level near the 200-day moving average around $31.77.

Compelling Analyst Conviction Amid Volatility

In stark contrast to these concerns, analysts at H.C. Wainwright maintain a profoundly bullish outlook. Analyst Joseph Pantginis recently reaffirmed his Buy rating on the stock, holding firm to a price target of $102.00. Based on a recent trading level near $35.40, this target implies a substantial upside potential of roughly 188 percent.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Viking Therapeutics?

This optimistic stance receives unexpected validation from a rival's success. Positive Phase 3 data from Eli Lilly's "ATTAIN-MAINTAIN" study for an oral maintenance therapy serves as a crucial proof-of-concept for the entire drug class. Market experts interpret this as a direct positive signal for Viking's own oral candidate, VK2735, suggesting Lilly's data could significantly de-risk the commercial potential of Viking's program.

Pipeline Progress on Multiple Fronts

Operationally, Viking continues to hit its milestones. Patient recruitment for the pivotal Phase 3 VANQUISH-1 study, evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735, was completed ahead of schedule in November 2025. This accelerated enrollment pace points to strong interest from both physicians and potential patients.

The company's development pipeline is advancing on schedule:
* Phase 3 VANQUISH-1: Enrollment concluded earlier than planned.
* Oral VK2735: Phase 2 study demonstrated weight loss of up to 12.2%.
* Pipeline Expansion: An Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a new drug candidate (DACRA) is planned for submission in Q1 2026.

The investment thesis for Viking Therapeutics now hinges almost entirely on upcoming clinical data readouts for the oral VK2735 study and the progression of the subcutaneous Phase 3 trials. The extreme divergence between the current share price and aggressive analyst targets defines the stock as a high-risk, high-reward proposition, with its near-term fate directly tied to the next set of clinical results.