Tilray’s Stock Outlook: Diverging Analyst Views Emerge After Reverse Split

Following the execution of a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, market analysts are presenting a mixed picture for investors. The stock has shown surprising resilience, closing higher on Thursday even as one prominent firm slashed its price target by more than half. While some see persistent headwinds, others point to a stabilizing foundation and a potential path forward.

Contrary to what a major price target cut might suggest, Tilray's shares demonstrated strength in recent trading. On Thursday, the equity closed with a gain of approximately 2.3 percent, trading between $7.22 and $7.24. Notably, trading volume reached 8.9 million shares—roughly 77 percent above the average—indicating significant institutional interest at the new price level.

This activity comes despite a substantial revision from TD Cowen. Analyst Robert Moskow, while maintaining a "Buy" rating, drastically reduced his price target from $25.00 to $10.00. His reassessment is attributed to the altered share structure post-split and ongoing operational challenges, including pressure in the craft beer market and fierce competition within Canada's cannabis sector. The new $10 target is based on a valuation multiple of 12x enterprise value to EBITDA, stemming from a projected EBITDA of $80 million for the next twelve months.

A Split in Analyst Sentiment

The analyst community is not aligned in its assessment. In a contrasting move, an analysis featured on Seeking Alpha upgraded the stock from "Strong Sell" to "Hold." This more optimistic shift cites the company's improved balance sheet structure and the removal of a technical overhang now that the reverse split is complete.

The broader context for these evaluations is the recently completed 1-for-10 reverse split, which reduced outstanding shares from 1.16 billion to 116 million. Such corporate actions are often viewed with skepticism by the market, as they can be employed to maintain exchange listing requirements. Over the past five years, the stock has lost over 90 percent of its value and trades about 66 percent below its 52-week high, with the continued absence of federal legalization in the U.S. weighing heavily on sentiment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tilray?

Financial Strength and Strategic Pivot

Beyond the analyst debate, Tilray's financials reveal a relatively stable base. The company maintains a net cash position:
* Cash and equivalents: Approximately $265 million
* Total debt: Approximately $253 million

This liquidity cushion is a key pillar for the remaining bullish arguments. Some market participants view the company—currently trading at roughly 0.5 times sales—as undervalued compared to peers like Canopy Growth.

Operationally, Tilray is aggressively pursuing a diversification strategy away from a pure-play cannabis focus. The recent promotion of an "Ultimate 2025 Holiday Drink Gift Guide" highlights its emphasis on the beverage portfolio, which includes brands like Breckenridge Distillery. This pivot toward alcohol and wellness beverages is designed to mitigate the volatility inherent in the cannabis market.

The Road Ahead

The post-split price action suggests a near-term support zone may be forming around the $7.00 mark (equivalent to $0.70 pre-split). The next critical test for the stock arrives on January 9, 2026, with the release of quarterly results. This report will provide the first concrete evidence of how the company's strategic shifts and its holiday performance in the beverage segment are translating to the bottom line. Until then, the equity must prove it can sustain a defense above the $7.00 level.