Silver Soars as China Tightens Export Controls

A dramatic shift in China's export policy has sent shockwaves through the global silver market, propelling prices to multi-year highs and sparking fears of a severe supply squeeze. With China responsible for the majority of processed silver supply, new licensing restrictions effective in January are set to remove a significant number of exporters from the international trade, creating immediate procurement challenges for industrial consumers worldwide.

The immediate impact has been a parabolic rally in silver's value. The metal closed Friday's trading session at $79.67 per ounce, cementing a fresh 52-week high. This represents a staggering gain of more than 48% over the preceding 30-day period. In a particularly volatile move, prices surged over 18% in a single week, highlighting intense buying pressure driven by supply concerns.

Technical charts reflect this market anxiety. The current price sits far above its 50-day moving average of $57.76. Furthermore, the gold-to-silver ratio has fallen to approximately 60, indicating that silver is significantly outperforming its peer.

The Core of the Crisis: China's New Export Rules

The catalyst for this upheaval is a fundamental policy change from the world's dominant processor. China, which supplies an estimated 60-70% of globally processed silver, is implementing a stringent licensing system. Starting in January, only firms with an annual production capacity of at least 80 tonnes and substantial credit lines will qualify for export licenses.

This move effectively sidelines countless small and medium-sized refiners overnight. Analysts interpret the measure as a deliberate constriction of global supply, potentially leaving Western manufacturing sectors scrambling for material from the start of the new year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Physical Inventories Hit Alarming Lows

The price action is underscored by a stark decline in visible stockpiles. Registered inventories at the COMEX exchange have plummeted by roughly 70% since 2020. Similarly, reported holdings in London and Shanghai vaults are hovering near record lows. This tangible drawdown reinforces the narrative of a market facing a structural deficit, which is now poised to extend into a fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Industrial Alarm Bells Ring

The potential ramifications have drawn concern from key industry leaders. Tesla CEO Elon Musk succinctly commented on the development on his X platform, stating, "This is not good." His apprehension is well-founded, as modern technology is deeply reliant on silver.

The metal is a critical component in electric vehicles, solar panels, and AI hardware, with a single Tesla vehicle reportedly requiring between 25 and 50 grams. Industrial demand now accounts for up to 60% of total silver consumption, meaning any sustained shortage strikes directly at the heart of the technology and green energy sectors.

Analysts Revise Targets Upward

In light of the combined forces of anticipated interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the Chinese export constraints, market experts are aggressively raising their forecasts. Ravinder Sharma of SMC Global Securities has identified $100 per ounce as a realistic price target for 2026.

The market is currently pricing in the risk that physical silver could become scarcely available for Western buyers in the coming months. As long as China maintains its export restrictions and the fundamental supply-demand gap persists, the path of least resistance for the silver price appears decisively upward.