Rocket Lab Stock Faces Headwinds as Space Sector Sinks

Key takeaways
- Thursday’s intraday drop of about 5.2%, with a session low of $63.87
- The move largely tied to sector dynamics after AST SpaceMobile’s capital-raising plans
- Next milestone: fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results due February 26
- The Neutron program remains in focus after an early-year test event

Sector pressure lifts the whole group

Market observers pointed to weakness across the space sector as the principal driver behind Rocket Lab’s recent slide. The catalyst was AST SpaceMobile’s capital-raising announcement, which spread jitters across several space equities. Rocket Lab’s decline appeared more like an industry-wide drag—an “contagion” effect—than a response to anything specific to the company.

Trading volume reflected the broader mood: roughly 18.2 million Rocket Lab shares changed hands on Thursday, below the stock’s average daily turnover of about 24.3 million shares.

Neutron program keeps the nerves taut

Beyond headline moves, the company’s Neutron development program continues to influence sentiment. Earlier this year, Rocket Lab disclosed that a hydrostatic pressure test resulted in a tank breach during an early development phase. While the incident was framed as a test milestone, it raised questions about the timeline for the mid-size rocket.

Upcoming earnings on February 26

The next meaningful catalyst for investors is the quarterly and full-year 2025 results, scheduled for February 26. Market research firms offer mixed expectations: Zacks projects fourth-quarter earnings per share of −$0.05, which would mark a 50% improvement from the year-ago quarter. Revenue is expected to come in at $177.9 million, representing a year-over-year increase of about 34.38%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab USA?

Analyst outlook remains divided

Sentiment on Wall Street is not uniform. MarketBeat’s consensus sits at a “Moderate Buy,” with a target price of $72.92. The distribution is typically: 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Sell.

There were notable shifts among several firms: Zacks trimmed its stance from “Strong Buy” to “Hold,” while Goldman Sachs maintained a neutral view in January and boosted its price target from $47 to $69.

Defense-linked order book and funding tailwinds

On the business front, Rocket Lab highlighted sizable government contracts as a notable driver of activity. In late December 2025, the company announced an $816 million contract to design and manufacture 18 satellites for the U.S. Space Force. In addition, a dedicated HASTE mission for the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) was announced to support hypersonic testing.

Quarterly results and margins in focus

In the most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025), Rocket Lab posted revenue of $155.08 million, up 48% from the prior year. The company, however, continued to operate at a loss, with a net margin of −35.64% and a return on equity of −27.26%.

What to watch next

All eyes will be on the February 26 earnings release for a concrete read on how the company’s top-line trajectory and profitability metrics are evolving, alongside the Neutron program’s development timeline. The market will also weigh how the defense-related orders translate into near-term revenue visibility and operating leverage.