Paradox in Lynas: NdPr Rally Conflicts with Stock Volatility

NdPr price has surged, while the shares move independently

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lynas?

• NdPr oxide price reached about 850,000 CNY per tonne on February 10, 2026, the highest level seen since July 2022. The lift reflects a gap in supply outside China as demand from electric vehicles, defense, and AI-powered robotics continues to grow.
• In late January 2026, reports surfaced about a potential shift in U.S. policy guidance that could reduce explicit price guarantees. No formal policy change was announced.
• Canaccord Genuity, in a note dated January 29, 2026, viewed the development as positive for established producers, noting that the U.S. government’s commitment to supply chains outside China remains, even if instruments are adjusted.

Sales jump despite a dip in production

• In the December quarter, Lynas reported gross revenue of A$201.9 million, up 43% year over year. The blended average selling price across all rare earth products stood at A$85.60 per kilogram, versus A$49.20 per kilogram in the prior year.
• On the production side, NdPr output fell about 30%, landing at 1,404 tonnes. The decline was driven by power outages at the Kalgoorlie plant and additional Malaysia maintenance. Overall, total rare earth production declined from 3,993 tonnes to 2,382 tonnes.

Strategic footing under a new leadership phase

• Lynas remains the sole major producer of separated rare earths outside China, with operations in Australia and Malaysia and an expanding footprint in the United States.
• The company confirmed that CEO Amanda Lacaze will step down after twelve years at the helm, adding a new layer of uncertainty to an already evolving strategic landscape.
• Western governments are actively promoting domestic supply chains through stakes, off-take agreements, and price mechanisms. Whether these structural moves will translate into steadier stock performance remains to be seen, with upcoming quarterly production data expected to reveal how well Lynas can address its operational challenges.