MP Materials Soars on Record Output and Analyst Upgrades

MP Materials Corp. has captured significant attention on Wall Street following the release of its third-quarter 2025 results. The rare earths producer posted record production figures and received multiple analyst upgrades, driving its shares up by 13% despite falling slightly short of revenue expectations.

The quarterly report triggered a wave of positive sentiment among market experts. JPMorgan Chase upgraded MP Materials from "Neutral" to "Overweight" on November 14. Deutsche Bank analyst Corinne Blanchard raised her rating from "Hold" to "Buy," simultaneously increasing her price target to $71 from $68.

Currently, an overwhelming 81% of analysts recommend purchasing the stock. The average price target now stands at $76.82 per share, indicating a substantial 33.51% upside potential from the recent price of approximately $57.54.

Production Reaches New Heights

The company announced an unprecedented production volume of 721 metric tons of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) during the third quarter. This represents a remarkable 51% surge compared to the same period last year, a milestone achieved through the successful ramp-up of its separation facility at the Mountain Pass operation in California.

While consolidated revenue reached $53.6 million, it narrowly missed the analyst consensus of $54.46 million. This shortfall is attributed to MP Materials halting all sales to China as part of new agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.10, a significant improvement over the anticipated $0.17 loss.

Key Operational and Financial Metrics:
- NdPr output: 721 metric tons (a 51% year-over-year increase)
- Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production: 13,254 metric tons (the second-best quarterly performance on record)
- Magnetics segment revenue: $21.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 million
- Total revenue: $53.6 million (a 15% year-over-year decline, primarily due to the cessation of China sales)

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?

Strategic Shift Ensures Financial Stability

A crucial factor behind the optimistic analyst outlook is MP Materials' deepened partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense. A price protection agreement that commenced on October 1, 2025, provides the company with vital cash flow certainty.

This strategic alignment solidifies MP Materials' role as a cornerstone of American mineral independence. The firm is recognized as the only scaled producer and processor of rare earths in North America.

Expansion into Heavy Rare Earths on Track

The development of the heavy rare earths separation facility at Mountain Pass remains on schedule for a mid-2026 operational launch. This new plant will initially focus on producing dysprosium and terbium, with a designated nameplate capacity of 200 metric tons per year.

This expansion holds considerable value-creation potential. Heavy rare earths command premium prices and are essential components for high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines.

MP Materials' stock has already appreciated by approximately 275% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. However, with a forward enterprise value-to-sales ratio of 16.67, the shares trade at a notable valuation premium, reflecting high market expectations.