Micron’s HBM4 Supply Fully Committed Through 2026 Amid AI Surge

The entire production capacity for Micron's next-generation HBM4 memory is already sold out through the end of 2026, according to company statements. This unprecedented demand highlights the severe tightness in the high-performance memory market and underscores the aggressive expansion strategy the chipmaker is pursuing. However, questions remain about the sustainability of this boom in an industry notorious for its cyclical nature.

Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana confirmed that Micron has entered volume production of HBM4 ahead of its original schedule. The most striking revelation is that the company's entire supply of this advanced memory for 2026 is already fully booked, a situation management describes as "sold out."

High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has become a critical component for artificial intelligence data centers due to its ability to move data at extreme speeds. The current AI-driven demand surge is compelling customers to secure long-term supply commitments, locking in capacity years in advance.

Massive Capital Investment to Address Shortages

In response to the supply crunch, Micron is launching an enormous capital expenditure program. The company has outlined plans totaling approximately $200 billion to expand its manufacturing footprint, primarily in the United States, with significant additional projects abroad.

Key projects include:
* Boise, Idaho: A $50 billion expansion featuring two new fabrication plants, with the first facility scheduled to begin wafer production by mid-2027.
* Syracuse, New York: A site development project valued at roughly $100 billion.
* Japan: An expansion initiative worth over $9.6 billion.

The rationale is straightforward: when demand outpaces the construction of new fabrication facilities, memory prices and utilization rates remain elevated. This creates a favorable environment for suppliers who can deliver product.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?

Soaring Profitability Amid Persistent Cyclical Concerns

The AI boom is dramatically reshaping Micron's financial profile. The company's gross margin has surged from 18.5% in early 2024 to 56% in the most recent quarter. Management is forecasting a further increase to approximately 68% for the current quarter.

Company executives characterize the situation as extraordinary, noting that internal fabrication capacity is insufficient to meet total customer demand. The Chief Financial Officer quantified the current supply capability for some clients at only about half to two-thirds of what they are requesting.

Despite this favorable position, competitive and cyclical risks persist. Current market share projections for HBM4 (as of September 2025) place SK Hynix in the lead at 54%, followed by Samsung at 28%, and Micron at 18%. The memory industry's historical pattern suggests that today's massive investments could eventually lead to future overcapacity.

Capital expenditure plans reflect this scaling effort. Micron's capex target for fiscal 2026 is set at around $20 billion, a significant increase from the approximately $14 billion planned for 2025. Preliminary figures for 2027 suggest spending could exceed $24 billion.

The equity market appears to have priced in much of this positive momentum. Micron shares are currently trading at $405.22, having advanced 28.47% since the start of the year. This performance indicates investor recognition of both the AI tailwind and the supply constraints surrounding HBM4.