Lynas Shares Lag as Rare-Earth Rally Surges, Yet the Stock Struggles to Keep Pace

Key indicators at a glance
- Neodymium (Today): 1,065,000 CNY/tonne (+34.38% for the month, +94.52% vs. the prior year; Trading Economics)
- Shares (Yesterday): 15.76 AUD (+4.10% on the day)
- Shares (Today): 16.00 AUD (Fintel)
- Revenue Q2 FY2026: 201.9 million AUD (+43%)
- Average selling price: 85.60 AUD/kg (Prior year: 49.20 AUD/kg)
- Production Q2: 2,382 tonnes Rare-Earth-Oxide (REO)
- Market capitalization: around 16.1 billion AUD

Commodity prices are running ahead of the stock
The broader market for rare earths has benefited from clearer upward momentum. Neodymium is trading at its strongest level since the 2022 rally, according to Trading Economics. Signals from China also point to a wider price uptrend: sources within the China Tungsten Industry industry noted domestic prices moving higher. Specifically, the price for Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide rose by roughly 60,000 RMB per tonne, while Terbium oxide gained about 100,000 RMB per tonne.

Lynas’s story remains positive on a commodity backdrop, but the stock’s trajectory isn’t perfectly aligned with the commodity cycle. Since the start of the year, Lynas’ shares are up around 26.69%, and over the last 12 months they’ve risen roughly 128%. In the near term, this still looks like lagging the more dynamic price indicators.

Higher prices, thinner output
The latest quarterly results illustrate the dynamic mix facing Lynas: strong pricing power offset by operational headwinds. For the second quarter of the fiscal year ending December, revenue reached AUD 201.9 million, up 43% from the prior year quarter. The company’s average realized price climbed to AUD 85.60 per kilogram, versus AUD 49.20 per kilogram in the year-ago quarter.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lynas?

On the production front, total REO output declined to 2,382 tonnes from 3,993 tonnes in the previous quarter. The company cited power outages at the Kalgoorlie site in Western Australia as a key factor. Consequently, NdPr (NdPr) production fell by about 30% quarter-on-quarter to 1,404 tonnes.

Policy shifts and leadership changes as added context
The political backdrop continues to evolve. A Canaccord Genuity note from late January indicated Washington is recalibrating its approach to critical minerals, shifting from broad-price guarantees toward targeted investments, specific offtake agreements, and tariff measures. In practice, this could tilt advantages toward producers that already operate mature facilities rather than projects in early development.

Meanwhile, Lynas also announced a leadership transition: CEO Amanda Lacaze will retire after twelve years at the helm. In the quarterly report, she observed that regulatory frameworks around minimum prices—often described as floor prices—have improved market mechanics and helped push prices toward a more sustainable level.

Bottom line
At present, Lynas is confronting a combination of a robust price environment for its feedstock and operational friction on the ground. This explains why the stock has not moved in perfect lockstep with the surging commodity backdrop. The company faces higher selling prices and steady demand, but this is tempered by production hiccups and evolving policy dynamics that influence the stock’s relative performance.