Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Quantum Computing Rally

The quantum computing sector experienced a significant surge this week, driven by heightened geopolitical concerns and potential shifts in U.S. government policy. Shares of Rigetti Computing, a publicly-traded quantum specialist, soared more than 15% in Thursday’s trading session.

Concerns over a narrowing technological gap were highlighted by John Martinis, co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics and former head of Google's quantum computing program. In a recent interview, Martinis expressed apprehension regarding China's accelerated progress in the field. He noted that while China trailed by approximately three years in 2019—when Google announced its quantum supremacy milestone—the landscape has dramatically changed. "China is definitely very competitive," Martinis stated, adding, "They have caught up quickly. Now we are worried that we might only be nanoseconds ahead of them."

This assessment underscores the strategic importance of quantum technology, viewed as a foundational future technology with potential applications spanning pharmaceutical discovery, cryptography, and materials science.

Potential Catalyst: U.S. Government Interest

Investor sentiment received a further boost from Martinis’s revelation of a recent meeting at the White House, where he discussed quantum advancements with administration officials. His observation that "they are moving toward quantum now" has sparked market speculation. Analysts interpret this as a sign that the U.S. government may be considering direct investments in quantum computing firms, mirroring strategic support previously extended to semiconductor and critical materials companies.

This prospect acted as a catalyst for the broader sector, with Rigetti shares benefiting disproportionately due to its status as one of the few pure-play quantum computing companies listed on public markets.

Volatile Performance Amid Long-Term Gains

The rally arrives after a period of notable volatility for the company. In November, Rigetti's stock plummeted 42% following the release of disappointing quarterly results. The firm reported third-quarter revenue of $1.95 million, with a net loss of $201 million. This loss was significantly impacted by $149 million in non-cash losses related to derivatives.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Despite these swings, the equity has delivered staggering year-to-date gains of approximately 771%. The valuation remains extreme, however, with a market capitalization near $9 billion contrasting sharply with trailing twelve-month revenue of just $7.5 million.

Operational Milestones Provide Foundation

Amid the financial turbulence, Rigetti has reported concrete operational progress. In November, the company announced orders for two Novera quantum processors, valued at roughly $5.7 million, with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2026. Rigetti is also engaged in a collaboration with NVIDIA and is a supplier to the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory.

A critical technological milestone is on the horizon: the company plans to deliver a system featuring over 100 qubits by the end of 2025, targeting a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%. Achieving this benchmark is considered a vital step toward developing practically useful quantum computers.

An Uncertain Race with Strategic Stakes

According to Martinis, widespread commercial adoption of quantum computing remains five to ten years away. Nevertheless, the intensifying geopolitical dimension may provide sustained tailwinds for the industry. Should Washington follow through with strategic capital injections into quantum technology, the sector's trajectory could be fundamentally altered.

Whether Rigetti emerges as a long-term beneficiary hinges on its ability to execute its technology roadmap and curtail its substantial losses. With a cash position of approximately $600 million, the company currently possesses sufficient resources to fund its research and development efforts in the near term.