Eli Lilly’s Strategic Response in the Escalating Obesity Drug Race

The competitive landscape for weight-loss medications intensified dramatically this week. In a landmark decision, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Novo Nordisk's Wegovy as the first oral tablet for obesity treatment this past Sunday. This news propelled the Danish rival's stock upward by approximately 10% in after-hours trading. Eli Lilly, however, is not far behind, having submitted its own application for the oral candidate Orforglipron to the FDA just three days prior, on December 19.

While Novo Nordisk currently holds the regulatory lead, market expectations already factor in Eli Lilly's anticipated follow-up in early 2026. The company's clinical Phase 3 data from the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN study provides a compelling case. Patients who switched from the injectable version of Wegovy to Lilly's Orforglipron tablet regained only about one kilogram on average over 52 weeks. A switch from Lilly's own injectable therapy, Zepbound, to the oral form resulted in an average regain of roughly five kilograms.

The core efficacy metrics remain pivotal. Over a 72-week period, Zepbound injections led to an average weight reduction of 20.2%, outperforming the competing injectable product's result of 13.7%. This suggests the injectable portfolio will likely continue to be the primary revenue driver, with oral variants serving to broaden overall market access.

Financial Momentum and Pricing Tactics

Eli Lilly's financial performance provides substantial backing for its aggressive strategy. Third-quarter revenue surged by 54% to $17.6 billion, with Mounjaro and Zepbound alone contributing over $10 billion quarterly. For the full 2025 fiscal year, management has provided revenue guidance in the range of $63.0 to $63.5 billion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eli Lilly?

Concurrently, the company has implemented a strategic price adjustment for Zepbound. Effective December 1, the out-of-pocket cost for patients ranges from $299 to $449 per month. This price reduction is designed to achieve a dual objective: undercutting competitors before they achieve full market penetration and improving affordability for patients without comprehensive insurance coverage.

Expansion and Analyst Sentiment

Speculation is growing regarding potential strategic acquisitions to diversify Eli Lilly's development pipeline beyond metabolic diseases. Rumors have circulated about a possible takeover of the biotechnology firm Abivax, whose shares jumped nearly 15% to over $131 on Sunday. Although an official confirmation is pending, such a move would align with the company's broader expansion goals.

Market experts maintain a positive outlook. The consensus analyst rating stands at "Strong Buy." Citigroup has set a price target of $1,500, representing a potential upside of around 40% from current levels. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Eli Lilly's clinical advantages and assertive commercial tactics can successfully counter Novo Nordisk's first-mover advantage in the oral medication segment.