Costco Investors Face Pivotal Week with Earnings and Tariff Deadline

A consequential week lies ahead for shareholders of warehouse retail giant Costco, with two major events poised to influence the company's near-term trajectory. The dual focus will be on quarterly financial performance and a critical milestone in a multi-billion dollar legal dispute with U.S. authorities.

After the market closes on Thursday, December 11, Costco is scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year. Market consensus points to revenue of $67.03 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24. This follows a strong prior quarter where the company surpassed analyst forecasts, posting EPS of $5.87 on revenue growth of 8.1 percent.

Billion-Dollar Tariff Dispute Reaches Crucial Juncture

Simultaneously, a long-running legal battle over tariffs imposed during the previous U.S. administration is approaching a key deadline. Costco has filed suit against the federal government, seeking a refund of duties it contends were unlawfully levied. The company is estimated to have paid approximately $90 billion in these import taxes to date.

The procedural calendar presents two immediate actions. By December 15, companies must formally assert their claims for reimbursement to preserve their right to a potential refund. Coinciding with this deadline, the final customs liquidation for the affected Costco imports will commence. The U.S. Supreme Court has already heard oral arguments in the broader tariff appeal on November 5, with a final ruling anticipated in early 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Costco?

Core Business Momentum Remains Robust

Despite these legal and financial overhangs, Costco's fundamental operations continue to demonstrate resilience. The company maintains exceptionally high membership renewal rates, and its value proposition continues to attract consumers. Recent sales figures underscore this strength: net sales for November increased 8.1 percent to $23.64 billion. For the first twelve weeks of the current reporting period, sales have risen 8.2 percent.

A central component of Costco's strategy to mitigate tariff-related cost pressures is the aggressive expansion of its private-label brand, Kirkland Signature. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the retailer launched more than 30 new Kirkland products and has plans for further category growth. The brand is positioned to offer members savings of 15 to 20 percent compared to national brands, while matching or exceeding their quality.

Market Outlook and Next Steps

The investment community's view remains favorable, with research analysts maintaining an average "Buy" recommendation on the equity. The immediate focus, however, is squarely on the December 11 earnings release and the December 15 tariff deadline. Looking further ahead, the Supreme Court's decision in early 2026 is expected to provide long-term clarity on the significant financial liability tied to the ongoing dispute.