Carrier Global Shares Face Persistent Downturn Pressure

The climate solutions provider Carrier Global Corporation finds itself navigating a severe confidence crisis among investors. Despite reporting unexpectedly strong quarterly earnings and authorizing a multi-billion dollar share repurchase program, the company's stock has plummeted to a fresh annual low. Market participants are now questioning what is fueling this sustained downward trajectory and when a potential recovery might begin.

From a technical analysis perspective, the equity's performance paints a concerning picture. The descent to a new 52-week low indicates that Carrier Global has breached crucial support levels. The share price now trades nearly 20% below its 200-day moving average, highlighting persistent negative momentum.

Even the announcement of a substantial $5 billion stock buyback initiative failed to generate lasting positive sentiment. The market's response was swift and punishing: financial institutions promptly adjusted their outlooks. Morgan Stanley reduced its price target from $75 to $60, while Barclays cut its projection from $82 to $74.

Profit Beat Masks Underlying Challenges

The company's most recent quarterly report contained what should have been celebratory news. Carrier delivered a clear earnings surprise, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.67 compared to analyst expectations of $0.57. However, this surface-level strength concealed troubling developments elsewhere in the financial statements.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Carrier Global Corp?

Net sales contracted by 7%, landing at $5.58 billion and falling short of market estimates. More significantly, management issued disappointing forward guidance. Instead of the projected $2.99, the company now anticipates approximately $2.65 in adjusted earnings per share for 2025. This substantial downward revision has created palpable anxiety among shareholders.

Strategic Shifts and Operational Bright Spots

Amid the widespread pessimism, certain segments continue to demonstrate robust performance. Carrier's commercial HVAC operations in the American market registered impressive 30% growth. The company is also undertaking strategic repositioning through the divestiture of its fire suppression business, allowing greater focus on core climate and energy operations.

The critical question facing investors is whether Carrier can arrest the current decline. All attention now turns to the fourth quarter performance, where company leadership must demonstrate that their strategic initiatives are yielding results and that the business has ultimately found its footing.