Avidity Biosciences Shares Navigate Merger-Driven Trading Range

The equity of Avidity Biosciences is currently trading within a narrow band, a dynamic almost entirely dictated by its pending acquisition by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis. While the stock is edging higher in today's session, its upside is effectively capped by the specific terms of the proposed deal.

The fundamental value attracting Novartis's $12 billion bid lies in Avidity's development pipeline. The company recently reported positive topline results from its EXPLORE44 studies for del-zota, a treatment for a form of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD44). Data indicated clinically meaningful improvements after approximately one year of treatment. This progress has been significant enough for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to provide a clear pathway following a pre-BLA meeting, paving the way for a Biologics License Application (BLA) submission in 2026.

Recent financials highlight the typical biotech narrative of promising science alongside developmental-stage economics. For the third quarter of 2025, revenue surged to $12.48 million, vastly exceeding expectations and representing growth of over 420% year-over-year. Conversely, the quarterly loss per share of ($1.27) missed analyst estimates. While negative margins are standard for a company at this stage, they underscore the distance to future profitability.

The $72.00 Ceiling: Analyst Consensus and Institutional Moves

The all-cash offer of $72.00 per share from Novartis has created a definitive ceiling for the stock price. This has prompted several research firms to adjust their ratings and price targets to align with the takeover bid:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Avidity Biosciences?

• Chardan Capital Markets downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," setting its price target at the acquisition offer of $72.00.
• TD Cowen moved to a "Hold" recommendation, lowering its target from $78.00 to $74.00.
• RBC Capital shifted from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform," raising its target from $61.00 to $72.00.

The current average analyst consensus now stands at "Hold," with a price target of $69.24, which sits below the takeover premium.

As the market digests the merger news, institutional investor activity has been mixed. Some major holders have significantly reduced their positions, while others have substantially increased their stakes or initiated new ones. Perhaps more telling are the transactions by company insiders:

• Chief Executive Officer Sarah Boyce sold 50,000 shares on September 5 at an average price of $49.95.
• Insider Eric Mosbrooker disposed of 6,562 shares on October 3 at $45.38 per share.

These sales are widely interpreted as profit-taking in anticipation of the deal's closure.

Technical Position and Pending Closure

In the previous trading session, the stock gained 0.266%, closing at $71.54. The slight upward trend is continuing today. With a trading volume of 2 million shares, the price action is technically positive, as both the share price and volume have risen in tandem. The overarching question for investors now is whether Novartis will finalize the acquisition under the announced terms. Until that decision is made, Avidity Biosciences shares are likely to continue navigating a tight trading corridor—drawn toward the $72.00 benchmark but subject to the typical market volatility that precedes a major corporate event.