Apple’s Stock Outlook Brightens on Strong iPhone 17 Projections

Market sentiment surrounding Apple Inc. is gaining momentum, fueled by growing confidence in the upcoming iPhone 17 cycle. As the company's shares hover near their 52-week peak, investor focus is shifting toward 2026, with several prominent Wall Street firms revising their forecasts upward based on early supply chain data and robust demand indicators.

A key driver of the recent optimism stems from revised analyses by major financial institutions. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Apple stock, increasing its price target from $305 to $315. This adjustment was supported by preliminary production figures suggesting Apple plans to manufacture approximately 56 million iPhone units in the first calendar quarter of 2026. This volume would represent a year-over-year increase of 12%, signaling sustained consumer interest in the new generation.

Echoing this positive view, analysts at Jefferies also raised their price target, now setting it above $283. Their assessment highlighted Apple's resilient profitability, noting that despite rising costs for memory components, the company is likely to maintain stable margins thanks to high average selling prices. Current projections indicate Apple's earnings per share for the first fiscal quarter of 2026 could surpass Wall Street's consensus estimates by around 6%.

Strength in the Chinese Market

Performance in China serves as a critical pillar for the bullish outlook. According to recent IDC market research data, Apple captured over 20% market share in October and November, securing a leadership position in the region. This strength prompted IDC to significantly raise its fourth-quarter growth forecast for Apple in China, revising it upward from 9% to 17%.

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This market dynamic aligns with commentary from CEO Tim Cook, who previously indicated he expects record revenue for the December quarter. IDC further projects that Apple will ship more than 247 million iPhones throughout the full 2025 calendar year, which would set a new annual record for the company.

Regulatory Hurdles and Trading Volatility

Despite strong operational trends, Apple continues to navigate a complex regulatory landscape. In Japan, the company recently modified its iOS platform to comply with local competition law (MSCA), granting developers greater freedom in app distribution and payment processing. Simultaneously, in the European Union, a coalition of app developers is pushing for stricter enforcement of Digital Markets Act rules, challenging the company's current fee structure.

Trading activity on Friday was notably elevated due to the quarterly "triple witching" derivatives expiration, which typically leads to higher volume. Over 142 million shares changed hands, significantly above the daily average. This surge was attributed more to these technical factors than to company-specific news. The stock closed at €234.00, remaining within striking distance of its all-time high.

The Upcoming Earnings Catalyst

The true test for the prevailing optimistic analyst views will come at the end of January. Apple is scheduled to release its quarterly results on January 29, 2026. This report will provide the first comprehensive look at iPhone 17 sales performance during the crucial holiday shopping period, revealing whether the anticipated double-digit growth rates for the iPhone segment have materialized.