AMD Shares Gain on Prospects of Renewed China Market Access

A significant shift in U.S. policy could unlock a major growth avenue for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) by 2026, fueling analyst optimism and driving price target upgrades. The semiconductor stock, which has already advanced more than 82% since the start of the year, may see a fundamental new driver emerge if anticipated export restrictions are eased.

Market observers are revising their financial models for AMD based on expectations of a change in U.S. export policy under the new administration. The core of this optimism hinges on a potential 2026 authorization allowing the sale of advanced AI chips, specifically the AMD MI308, to Chinese firms. This permission is expected to come with a stipulation: a revenue-sharing fee of 15% to 25% would be payable to the U.S. Treasury.

Regaining access to the Chinese market is critical for AMD's forward revenue. Historically, China accounted for nearly a quarter of the company's sales before stricter controls were implemented. Concrete business is already being speculated upon, with a potential deal involving Alibaba. Analysts point to a possible volume of 40,000 to 50,000 units of the MI308 chip, which would translate to an order value of approximately $800 million.

Financial Forecasts and Strategic Positioning

This potential market reopening has had a direct impact on Wall Street's valuation. The current consensus rating stands at "Moderate Buy," supported by 28 buy recommendations. The average price target has moved to just above $277, implying an upside potential of roughly 29% from current levels.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AMD?

Should the Chinese market indeed reopen, experts project 2026 revenue could jump to as much as $51 billion. This figure is significantly higher than a previous baseline estimate of $44.6 billion. Strategically, AMD is positioning its chips as a cost-efficient alternative to market leader Nvidia's products within the AI "inference" market, where trained models are applied.

Insider Activity Presents a Cautious Note

Despite these bullish external factors, internal transactions present a more mixed picture. CEO Lisa Su recently divested 125,000 shares worth nearly $27 million. In total, insiders sold shares amounting to around $40 million in the last quarter. However, institutional investors remain largely committed, currently holding over 71% of the company's shares.

Investor focus now shifts to the official confirmation of the new export rules and the associated fee structure. The next critical milestone will be the upcoming quarterly earnings report, which may provide clarity on whether the speculated large-scale orders from China are materializing in the company's order books.