AMD Secures Key Export License for AI Chips in Chinese Market

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) has received the necessary U.S. government authorization to export its specialized MI308 artificial intelligence accelerators to China. During a recent conference in San Francisco, CEO Dr. Lisa Su confirmed the company possesses the required licenses and has agreed to pay the 15% export tariff instituted by the Trump administration. This development marks a significant strategic move for the semiconductor firm as it competes with Nvidia in the global AI sector.

Even while deliberately excluding potential revenue from its China-bound MI308 chips, AMD reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company’s performance surpassed analyst estimates, demonstrating robust growth outside of the contested Chinese market.

Key Q3 2025 financial highlights include:
* Revenue: $9.2 billion, representing a 36% year-over-year increase.
* Adjusted Earnings Per Share: $1.20, beating the consensus estimate of $1.17.
* Free Cash Flow: $1.5 billion.
* Liquidity: $7.2 billion in cash and equivalents.

Looking ahead, management provided fourth-quarter 2025 revenue guidance of approximately $9.6 billion, which would equate to growth of 25%. The company also forecasts an adjusted gross margin of around 54.5% for the period.

Navigating Geopolitical and Regulatory Complexities

The MI308 accelerators are a modified, lower-performance version of AMD’s flagship Instinct MI300X series, specifically engineered to comply with U.S. export control regulations. All revenue from MI308 sales in China was deferred and not recognized in the Q3 2025 financial statements, as the company awaited final licensing approval.

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This cautious approach reflects the intricate landscape AMD must navigate. Chinese authorities have issued directives for state-funded data centers to prioritize domestically produced AI chips. Simultaneously, China’s foreign ministry continues to urge the U.S. to maintain stability in global technology supply chains, placing companies like AMD at the intersection of commerce and geopolitics.

Analyst Confidence and Strategic Roadmap

Investment firm TD Cowen has named AMD a top pick for 2026, citing the upcoming launch of its next-generation Helios computing platform and the MI450 accelerator, scheduled for mid-2026. The subsequent MI500 series is slated for 2027.

AMD’s growth narrative is further supported by major strategic partnerships with industry leaders:
* OpenAI: Plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPU capacity, with initial MI450 deliveries beginning in the second half of 2026.
* Oracle: Will launch the first publicly available AI supercluster based on the Helios architecture, featuring 50,000 GPUs, starting in Q3 2026.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): An expanded collaboration for the "Herder" supercomputer at the High-Performance Computing Center in Stuttgart, which will be equipped with MI430X GPUs and next-generation EPYC CPUs.

Long-Term Growth Ambitions

At its November investor day, AMD outlined ambitious targets for the next three to five years. The company projects overall revenue growth exceeding 35% annually, with its Data Center segment expected to grow at over 60%. AMD aims to achieve an adjusted operating margin above 35% and capture a 70% market share in the Adaptive Computing segment.

Management believes the total addressable market for data center chips could reach $1 trillion by 2030, positioning AMD as a key challenger to Nvidia’s current dominance. According to MarketBeat, 42 analysts currently cover the stock, with a majority maintaining a "Buy" rating. Bank of America research suggests the addressable market for AI data center chips could quintuple by the end of the decade. Melius Research has issued a price target of $380 per share.