Almonty Shares Maintain Upward Momentum as Production Commences

The equity of Almonty Industries continues its remarkable ascent, building on significant gains. In early trading today, the stock added to its value following a 6.9% surge yesterday, which saw it touch a peak of US$9.45. Year-to-date, the advance totals approximately 800%, fueled by the tungsten specialist's critical evolution from a development-stage company to an active producer.

Supporting its operational progress, Almonty recently fortified its balance sheet. During December, the company completed an equity placement, raising US$129.4 million at a price of US$6.25 per share. The offering was oversubscribed and led by Bank of America, attracting several long-term oriented U.S. institutional investors.

Substantial positions were established earlier, in the third quarter, by notable funds:
* Telemark Asset Management: US$7.8 million
* Alyeska Investment Group: US$7.8 million
* ArrowMark Colorado Holdings: US$7.8 million
* Millennium Management: US$5.9 million
* Sei Investments: US$2.6 million

The market now values the company at around US$2.4 billion, reflecting its changed status as a producer.

Sangdong Mine: Transition to Commercial Operations

The primary catalyst for this revaluation is the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Almonty has officially commenced commercial production there, marking a definitive shift from construction to operational activity. On December 16, the first truckload of ore was delivered to the run-of-mine stockpile.

According to company statements, Sangdong is poised to become the largest tungsten mine outside of China. At full capacity, it is projected to supply over 80% of the world's non-Chinese tungsten production, granting it strategic importance for Western defense and technology supply chains.

Key operational milestones include:
* Confirmation of first ore delivery on December 16.
* Processing plants currently in commissioning and test phases.
* A cost structure designed for profitability even at lower commodity prices.
* A high-grade deposit with a planned long mine life.

Analyst Sentiment Turns Bullish

Market researchers have responded with upgraded assessments. On December 19, DA Davidson reaffirmed a "Buy" recommendation with a US$12 price target. Oppenheimer raised its target from US$7 to US$12, assigning an "Outperform" rating. The average consensus price target among covering analysts stands at US$10.17, corresponding to a "Moderate Buy" rating.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

This optimistic outlook is grounded in three core factors: the confirmed production start, a strengthened financial position post-capital raise, and Almonty's emerging role as a supplier of critical raw materials.

Strategic Foothold in North America

Beyond South Korea, Almonty is expanding its footprint into North America. In November, the company acquired the Gentung Browns Lake tungsten project in Montana. This move establishes a base for future U.S. production, with a targeted start in the second half of 2026.

This strategy directly addresses anticipated regulatory shifts: from 2027, U.S. defense contracts are expected to mandate the use of tungsten sourced from outside China. For Almonty, this creates a structurally supported future market.

The company underscored this strategic direction in December by appointing retired U.S. Brigadier General Steven L. Allen as Chief Operating Officer. His focus will be on organizing logistics and supply chains, particularly for the defense sector.

Volatility Persists Amid Strong Fundamentals

Despite the powerful fundamental drivers, the stock exhibits notable volatility. The price-to-earnings ratio remains negative at -41.26, as the company is still transitioning toward sustainable profitability. The net debt-to-equity ratio is 16.37, and short-term liquidity is tight, with a current ratio of 0.77.

Trading volume yesterday was approximately 1.27 million shares, about 36% below the 2-million-share average, partly due to seasonal holiday trading.

From a technical perspective, the shares are trading well above their 50-day moving average of US$7.14 and are near the upper end of their 52-week range of US$1.34 to US$10.68. The key determinants for future performance will be the speed at which Sangdong ramps up to its planned production rate and the company's execution of its U.S. expansion plans.