PayPal Shares Under Pressure as Analysts Downgrade Outlook

A wave of analyst downgrades has hit PayPal Holdings, Inc., casting a shadow over the digital payments leader. Within a short 48-hour period, multiple Wall Street firms revised their ratings and slashed price targets, responding to cautious commentary from the company's own finance chief about slowing growth in a core business segment.

The catalyst for this reassessment was commentary from Chief Financial Officer Jamie Miller at a recent UBS conference. Miller indicated that growth within the crucial "Branded Checkout" segment is expected to decelerate noticeably in the fourth quarter of 2025. The anticipated slowdown is projected to be "at least several percentage points" below the growth rate posted in Q3.

This segment is a primary driver of PayPal's profitability. While it achieved mid-single-digit growth in the third quarter, the new guidance suggests a rate of approximately 3%, sparking concern among market observers about the company's near-term momentum in a fiercely competitive landscape.

A Series of Rating Cuts

The analyst community moved swiftly following the CFO's remarks. The most recent action came from Wall Street Zen, which downgraded PayPal from "Buy" to "Hold" on December 6, 2025.

This followed adjustments from two other major institutions. A day earlier, Deutsche Bank reduced its price target from $75 to $65, while maintaining a "Hold" rating. Analyst Nate Svensson cited an internal survey that revealed few potential short-term catalysts for the stock.

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JPMorgan Chase executed a more significant revision. The bank not only lowered its rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" but also cut its price target substantially, from $85 to $70. In their rationale, analysts suggested that 2026 would be a "show-me" year, requiring PayPal to demonstrate the efficacy of its strategic shifts before a re-rating of the stock could be justified.

Solid Past Results Overshadowed by Future Concerns

The downgrades come despite PayPal reporting robust third-quarter 2025 earnings. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34, soundly beating the consensus estimate of $1.20. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, coming in at $8.42 billion against expectations of $8.21 billion.

However, financial markets are forward-looking. The company's full-year 2025 EPS guidance, set between $5.35 and $5.39, has failed to alleviate worries about competitive pressures and growth sustainability. Notably, while institutional investors still hold approximately 68% of shares, recent insider transactions have shown net selling, with dispositions totaling $2.43 million unaccompanied by significant purchases.

Technical and Performance Metrics Weaken

The stock's technical picture has also deteriorated. The share price is now trading notably below two key moving averages: the 50-day average of $66.60 and the 200-day average of $69.51. Since the start of the year, PayPal's equity has lost over one-third of its value.

All eyes are now on the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report. This release will provide concrete evidence of whether the slowdown in the core branded checkout business is as pronounced as current warnings suggest, offering a critical test for management's strategic repositioning efforts.