Nio Shares Surge on Analyst Upgrade and Strong Order Data

Nio Inc. witnessed significant trading activity in late October, with its shares experiencing a dramatic intraday surge exceeding 12% on October 28. This upward momentum was primarily fueled by a bullish assessment from financial services firm Macquarie, which upgraded the electric vehicle manufacturer's stock to an "Outperform" rating and projected a potential 25% upside.

The Chinese EV maker's stock price demonstrated remarkable volatility during this period. On October 28, shares climbed from $5.38 to reach $6.03, representing a substantial single-day gain. Trading volume skyrocketed to 109.9 million shares, nearly doubling the average turnover. However, this enthusiasm proved temporary as profit-taking emerged the following day, pulling the price back by 3.6% to settle at $5.60.

This price behavior reflects the challenging environment facing Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. Nio operates under significant market expectations and faces intensifying competition, with investors closely monitoring the market debut of its Onvo brand.

Analyst Confidence and Growth Catalysts

Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao provided the catalyst for the recent price movement with his upgraded outlook. His research indicates clear growth potential, supporting both the "Outperform" recommendation and a price target suggesting more than 25% appreciation from current levels. Key factors driving this optimistic assessment include:

• Onvo L60 orders substantially exceeding the company's guidance of 20,000 units
• Potential additional momentum from the planned 2025 Firefly brand launch
• Imminent acceleration in delivery volumes

These developments have market participants questioning whether Nio has established the foundation for a sustained trend reversal.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nio?

Delivery Figures: A Mixed Performance Review

October delivery statistics presented a nuanced picture for the automaker. The company delivered 20,976 vehicles during the month, representing a solid 30.5% year-over-year increase but showing a slight sequential decline from September's numbers. The monthly delivery composition broke down as follows:

• 16,657 premium vehicles from the core Nio brand
• 4,319 units from the newer Onvo series

Cumulative deliveries through October reached 170,257 vehicles, marking a 35.1% increase compared to the same period last year. The Onvo expansion continues progressing with 166 retail outlets established across 60 cities and access to 584 battery swap stations, creating infrastructure for future growth.

Critical Financial Milestones Ahead

Attention now turns to Nio's third-quarter earnings release scheduled for November 20. This report will bring crucial financial metrics into focus, particularly vehicle margins and progress toward the company's year-end target of achieving 15% margins. The central question remains whether Nio can simultaneously maintain its premium positioning while driving profitable growth through the Onvo expansion.

Near-term price action will likely hinge on the battle around the $5.50 support level, while the planned 2025 Firefly introduction aims to initiate the company's next growth phase. Within China's increasingly competitive electric vehicle landscape, Nio faces a critical period of execution and demonstration.