Nasdaq 100 Finds a Lifeline in Rate Cut Speculation

A dramatic tug-of-war unfolded on Wall Street, where gloomy corporate news from the tech sector clashed with a surge of macroeconomic optimism. The unexpected hero of the session turned out to be a disappointing economic report, which revived hopes for imminent interest rate cuts and pulled the Nasdaq 100 back from the brink.

In a classic "bad news is good news" scenario for equity markets, the primary catalyst for the shift was the ADP private payrolls report. Contrary to expectations for job growth, the data revealed the private sector shed 32,000 positions in November.

This sign of a cooling economy was precisely the signal many investors had been awaiting. Market pricing now indicates an almost 89% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Consequently, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note retreated to 4.06%. This decline in borrowing costs provided crucial support for interest-rate-sensitive technology stocks, ultimately nudging the index into positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 concluded the trading day at 25,606.54 points.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying NASDAQ 100?

A Sector Divided: Hardware Strength vs. Software Jitters

Beneath the index's modest gain, a clear sectoral divergence was evident. Hardware and semiconductor names attracted buyers, while software companies faced significant selling pressure.

• Standout Performers: Marvell Technology emerged as a clear winner, its shares jumping on robust forecasts for its data center business and its aggressive acquisition of Celestial AI to bolster its optical connectivity portfolio. Tesla also notably outperformed, accelerating to a gain of 4%.
• Significant Drag: Market heavyweight Microsoft acted as a major anchor on sentiment. Reports of allegedly lowered revenue targets for its AI software offerings created uncertainty, despite company denials. Growing investor concern that massive investments in artificial intelligence may not yield returns quickly enough weighed on the stock. The negative sentiment spilled over to other software names like GitLab, which plunged approximately 13% following disappointing earnings.

Technical Defense and the Friday Crucible

From a chart perspective, the Nasdaq 100 successfully defended a key technical level during the session. Buyers stepped in decisively within the 25,000 to 25,250-point zone, protecting the 50-day moving average. For the bulls to regain momentum and target new record highs, however, a sustained break above the nearby resistance level around 25,500 points is necessary.

All attention now turns to the official U.S. jobs report scheduled for release on Friday. If the Non-Farm Payrolls data mirrors the weakness of the ADP report, expectations for policy easing will intensify further. Yet this scenario also carries a heightened risk: the market's current hope for a "soft landing" could swiftly transform into anxiety over a potential recession.