Itron Stock: Can a Major Buyback Unlock Significant Upside?

Itron, Inc. finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's management is deploying a substantial capital return program to counterbalance downward pressure on its share price, even as market analysts make minor adjustments to their targets. Meanwhile, the actions of major institutional investors reveal a stark divergence in strategy, pointing to a period of heightened volatility for the stock.

The company has provided investors with specific financial guidance looking ahead. For the fourth quarter of 2025, management forecasts revenue in the range of $555 million to $565 million. The full-year 2025 revenue projection is set between $2.35 billion and $2.36 billion.

These forward-looking statements follow the October quarterly report, where Itron demonstrated profitability despite a revenue decline. While revenue fell by 5.5% to $581.63 million, earnings per share (EPS) of $1.54 surpassed the consensus expectation of $1.48.

In response, market observers have made slight revisions. According to reports from December 3rd, analysts have trimmed their average price target to approximately $140.00, down from a prior $140.40. This adjusted figure now sits very close to a calculated fair value estimate of $140.20.

Management Fights Back with Capital

In a direct response to market sentiment, Itron's board of directors has authorized a new share repurchase program. The initiative, valued at up to $250 million, is set to run for an 18-month period. This aggressive move is widely interpreted as a strong signal of the leadership's confidence in the firm's intrinsic value and its robust cash flow generation capabilities.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Itron?

The Institutional Divide: A Battle of Conviction

An examination of major portfolio activity reveals a deep split among sophisticated investors, whose collective ownership stands at 96.19% of the company:

• Schroder Investment Management Group aggressively increased its stake in Q2 2025 by 23.6%, purchasing an additional 71,702 shares. This holding is now valued at roughly $49.5 million.
• Quadrature Capital Ltd established a new position, acquiring shares worth over $1 million.
• In contrast, Capital Fund Management S.A. reduced its exposure by 45.3%, selling 33,852 shares.

These opposing flows among the largest shareholders are a key driver of current price dynamics.

Assessing the 40% Gap

The consensus analyst rating remains "Moderate Buy." With the stock currently trading around $98.34 and the average price target near $139.00, experts see a potential upside exceeding 40%. This significant gap suggests the market may not have fully priced in the earnings resilience shown in Q3 or the supportive effect of the newly announced buyback program.

The pivotal question for investors is now whether Itron can deliver on its own Q4 2025 revenue forecast, thereby validating the bullish long-term thesis held by its steadfast major shareholders.